A potential seismic shift is brewing within FIFA that could reshape the landscape of the 2026 World Cup. World football's governing body is studying a fundamental change to how teams are seeded for the final draw, a move that could dramatically boost the hopes of European giants like Italy for an easier start to the tournament.
The Current System: A Penalty for Play-off Winners
Under the existing rules, there is a clear hierarchy. All teams that qualify through the European play-offs are automatically placed in Pot 4 , regardless of their FIFA World Ranking. The rest of the qualified teams are then distributed into the first three pots based solely on their ranking. This system has often meant that a traditionally strong nation, forced through the play-offs, finds itself in the most challenging pot despite its historical pedigree and current strength.
The Proposed Change: A Fair Fight Based on Ranking
The revolutionary change being considered would scrap this automatic demotion. According to reports from Calcio Venonza , FIFA is exploring a new model where all qualified teams, including those from the play-offs, would be seeded strictly according to their FIFA ranking. This "pure ranking" system promises a fairer and more accurate reflection of each team's current power, leading to a more balanced and just draw.
Why Italy is the Talk of the Town
This potential reform couldn't come at a more critical time for the Italian national team.
Their Current Struggle: The Azzurri are locked in a complex battle with Norway in their qualifying group, with a significant goal difference currently working against them. Their path to automatic qualification is fraught with difficulty.
A Glimmer of Hope: Should Italy secure its ticket through the play-offs, the new system would be a game-changer. Based on their current ranking, they would be elevated to Pot 1 , sitting among the world's elite.
This would allow them to avoid other top-seeded nations in the group stage.
It would potentially grant them a more favorable and manageable group , providing a smoother launchpad for their World Cup campaign.
A Cascade of Changes: Reshaping the Pots
The ripple effects of this change would be felt across the board, altering the composition of all pots:
Teams Facing Demotion: Nations like Germany could find themselves demoted to Pot 2 , instantly making them one of the most dangerous "second-tier" teams that every top seed would hope to avoid.
Teams on the Rise: Other nations such as Austria, Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, and Nigeria could see a promotion to Pot 3 , significantly increasing the overall strength and competitiveness of the groups.
A Race Against Time
The clock is ticking for a final decision. The highly anticipated final draw is scheduled for Washington DC on December 5, 2025 . FIFA must reach its verdict in the coming weeks, making the current period decisive in determining the fate of the 2026 World Cup draw.
Conclusion: A Decision with Global Repercussions
If approved, this reform would mark a fundamental departure from the system used at the 2022 Qatar World Cup. It would not only rekindle Italy's hopes of a deep tournament run but also redefine the strategic calculations for every qualified team. All eyes are now on FIFA's corridors of power, awaiting a decision that could redraw the road to glory for the 2026 World Cup.