This move, coming in the wake of the 2023 Gaza War and the subsequent military escalation in maritime navigation and the intervention of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) in Yemen in support of the Palestinian resistance, reveals a long-term Israeli vision to achieve hegemony over the Red Sea and counter rising threats from its south.
The Strait: The Fulcrum of Regional Conflict
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea, has remained a vital artery in Israeli security strategy for decades. Controlling this strait means dominating oil supply lines and trade routes from Asia to Europe, and provides a deterrent against any maritime threat coming from Yemen or the Horn of Africa.
In light of the increasing naval attacks by Houthi forces on ships linked to Israel, rising shipping insurance costs, and disrupted supply chains, Israeli calculations have accelerated to find a strategic ally on the African shore of the strait, away from traditional, wavering allies like Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Somaliland: The New Ally in the Geopolitical Game
Enter Somaliland, the breakaway entity that declared independence in 1991 and suffers from crippling international isolation and a dire economic situation, despite its unique geographic location overlooking the Gulf of Aden and proximity to Bab el-Mandeb.
Israel presents itself to this entity as a savior from isolation and an enabler of international recognition, in exchange for gaining a direct military and intelligence foothold at the entrance to the Red Sea. This cooperation could include:
Establishing military bases or monitoring points to observe maritime traffic and threats from Yemen.
Enhancing intelligence and security cooperation.
Potentially using Somaliland territory as a platform for operations against Houthi targets.
Reviving the Red Sea Power Struggle
This move brings back to the forefront the historic struggle for influence in the Red Sea, which witnessed wars and confrontations throughout the last century. It translates an old Israeli strategic vision, expressed by Moshe Dayan, aimed at preventing complete Arab control over both shores of the Red Sea, and creating a new geopolitical reality that guarantees Israeli national security and protects its economic interests.
Conversely, this step threatens to re-ignite the Somali file, provoke the anger of the federal government in Mogadishu and its allies in the Arab League, especially Egypt, which sees the Red Sea as its vital sphere. It also deepens division and conflict in the Horn of Africa, which has become an open arena for competition among regional powers like Turkey, Qatar, and the UAE, and international ones like the United States and China.
Recognition as a Geopolitical Weapon
The Israeli recognition of Somaliland is not limited to its diplomatic dimension; it is part of the wider war of positions in the region. It is an attempt to rearrange the cards of power after the October 2023 events, transforming the Red Sea from a sphere of threat into a sphere of influence.
At a time when traditional American hegemony in the region is receding, Israel is rushing to fill the void and build its own alliances, capitalizing on the structural weakness of the bordering Arab and African states, and the state of chaos and division they experience. This scene reaffirms a entrenched geopolitical truth: that Bab el-Mandeb is not just a waterway, but the heart of the struggle for regional hegemony, and that diplomatic recognitions can be more powerful than armies in drawing the maps of the future.