Yemen: The Tipping Point in the Riyadh Relationship
Perhaps the Yemeni arena is the most expressive of the predicament facing the UAE's role. After years of participation in the Saudi-led Arab coalition, recent events have revealed a fundamental divergence in visions between the two Gulf allies. While Riyadh prioritizes the security of its southern borders and preventing Iranian expansion, Abu Dhabi was simultaneously drawing its own parallel line by supporting the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which has separatist tendencies.
What happened last December was an explosion of pent-up tension, as Saudi forces launched airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Mukalla, targeting a shipment of weapons and military equipment coming from Fujairah, destined for UAE-aligned factions. The matter did not stop there; the dispute escalated into Riyadh publicly accusing Abu Dhabi of smuggling STC leader Aidarous Al-Zubaidi from Yemen to Somalia and then to Abu Dhabi aboard a military transport aircraft. This operation was described by Saudi Arabia as a "betrayal" of efforts aimed at preserving Yemen's unity.
Significantly, these UAE moves coincided with reports of STC forces seizing control of oil-rich eastern regions of Yemen. This prompted Riyadh to issue fiery statements asserting that "the security of the Kingdom is a red line," and that "the UAE's actions in Yemen pose a severe danger." Ultimately, Abu Dhabi was forced to comply with Saudi demands, withdrawing its forces and announcing the dissolution of the STC. Observers interpret this retreat as proof that Emirati ambitions had collided with an impassable ceiling.
Somalia and Somaliland: Sovereignty Calculations Backfire on Abu Dhabi
Away from Yemen, on the other side of the Gulf of Aden, the same scenarios are playing out. In Somalia, the UAE found itself facing a decision from the federal government in Mogadishu to cancel all agreements signed with Abu Dhabi, including those related to managing the ports of Berbera, Bosaso, and Kismayo, and to terminate bilateral security and military cooperation.
The Somali decision resulted from accumulating grievances, most notably Emirati support for the breakaway region of "Somaliland," which peaked with Abu Dhabi facilitating Israeli recognition of this entity last December—a step Mogadishu considered "a stab at national sovereignty." However, the last straw was the incident of smuggling Al-Zubaidi through Somali territory, which constituted a blatant violation of sovereignty and forced the Mogadishu government to completely rethink its relationship with its Emirati partner.
The greatest irony lies in the fact that the UAE's strategy, based on dealing with local non-state actors to circumvent central authorities, backfired when this same strategy was used to threaten its interests with the federal government. This confirms that policies based on fragmenting states and undermining their sovereignty carry within them the seeds of their own failure.
Sudan: Supporting the RSF Places Abu Dhabi in the Crosshairs
In Sudan, the picture appears even more complex. The UAE finds itself at the heart of international accusations of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in its war against the Sudanese army. A recent Reuters report revealed the existence of a secret training camp in Ethiopia, funded by the UAE and under its supervision, training thousands of fighters for the RSF.
Despite the UAE's categorical denial and a senior Emirati official's affirmation that "the UAE is not a party to the conflict" and is focused on humanitarian aid, the recurrence of accusations by UN experts and human rights organizations, and the implication of Abu Dhabi's name in crimes described by UN reports as "war crimes" in the city of El Fasher, casts heavy shadows over the Emirati position.
What is most dangerous about the Sudanese file is that it once again places the UAE in direct confrontation with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh supports army commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, while Abu Dhabi is accused of backing his rival. Furthermore, the economic gains associated with Sudanese gold mines, rumored to be the hidden motive behind this support, may no longer suffice to compensate for the significant moral damage to the image of a state embroiled in a bloody conflict with no end in sight.
The Price of Adventure: Growing Isolation and a Tarnished Image
These developments cannot be understood in isolation from the broader transformation in the regional and international environment. The UAE, which bet on building a network of influence through proxies and military bases in strategic ports (like Berbera in Somaliland or Socotra in Yemen), is now discovering that this game carries exorbitant costs when it comes to sovereign states.
On one hand, Abu Dhabi finds itself in confrontation with the "big brother," Saudi Arabia, which no longer accepts the "little brother" dynamic that characterized the past decade, especially with the rise of Mohammed bin Salman's ambitions and his reassertion of regional leadership. On the other hand, the Emirati-Israeli rapprochement, which peaked in the Somaliland recognition file, has placed it in the same trench as Tel Aviv, opposing a broad Arab and African consensus that rejects any infringement on Somali sovereignty.
Domestically, despite the difficulty of measuring public opinion in Gulf monarchies, leaks and discussions on social media suggest a widening rejection of costly interventionist policies. This is especially true as voices grow louder questioning the wisdom of spending billions of dollars on futile conflicts, while the economic and developmental project was the UAE's primary bet for decades.
The UAE is now paying the price for its choices. After years of believing that soft power, money, and flexible alliances could build unlimited regional influence, Abu Dhabi is discovering that foreign interventions follow a different logic. This logic dictates that fueling conflicts and supporting separatist factions typically erodes a state's capital, rather than increasing it.
The withdrawal from Yemen under Saudi pressure, the humiliating exit from Somalia, and the international accusations in Sudan are all indicators that the game of small powers in a world of giants can reach a dead end. The question remains: Will the UAE settle for a tactical repositioning, or will these setbacks lead to a comprehensive strategic review of its regional role? Only time will tell.