The very first clash between the two main contenders for the US presidency in November 2024 took place on June 27, more than five months before the election. This debate, as expected, was both virulent, revealing the growing polarization of American political life and the extreme animosity between the candidates. Joe Biden had an extremely difficult exercise, described as a disaster or a shipwreck, without much surprise. According to CNN, Donald Trump was considered the "winner" of this debate by 67% of those questioned. An unequivocal result, highlighting the divisive nature of the Republican candidate. Hesitant, sometimes incomprehensible.
John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon in 1960, it was that first show on TV that Joe Biden was just abysmal. His state of health, while it is talked about more and more often in the media, also contributed to derailing the higher-level debate in which he would have been well advised to engage with his opponent Coach Factory Outlet. The possibility of seeing Joe Biden re-elected no longer exists, this dream which has already been moving away since January 2024. At least it will only exist in the unlikely event that Donald Trump is eliminated for legal reasons or even more improbable, if alongside the Democrats, all the independents who vote support the current President without forgetting the moral support of some others as usual will make this election happen
While the national conventions will animate American political life during the summer, it is clear that Joe Biden has little chance of winning the election against Donald Trump. It is the chronicle of a predicted defeat, now leaving the Democrats free to find a solution.
The moment to open one's eyes
The American election, like no other, captivates the whole world. This is explained, of course, by the power that the owner of the White House embodies, as well as the intense media attention that is not found in any other foreign poll. Taking the French example, we can see that even if there are numerous analyzes and information on the race to the White House, the media is uninterested in elections in Germany, Italy, or Spain, to name a few examples.
This exaltation in North American opinion nevertheless suffers from the extent of the storage of political debates across the Atlantic by the media which now appear to be more abusive than commentators, the conclusion of an approximately Manichean bipolarization and a misplaced chasuble - since `in accommodation of dual nationals, the French do not vote especially in remembering the North American director than the German chancellor.
Yes, everyone has the freedom to express themselves, give comments and make criticisms. However, the media must also play an information role and go beyond these positions in order to present the facts rather than interpret them. Media coverage of this discussion is already visible, highlighting – how could it be otherwise? – the sinking of Joe Biden. However, it is surprising to have to wait until the end of June, after the end of the Primaries, to realize this observation that observers of American political life cannot have overlooked for months, or even longer.
It is therefore essential to become aware of the political spectacle offered by the largest democracy in the world. There's no need to laugh, especially in France, but this is clearly a lesson in humility for all those who wish for reality, focusing on Donald Trump's legal affairs and thereby ignoring that his opponent sees his chances of victory diminishing every day.
It will be absolutely unaffordable in taking over from key states.
The North American practice in elections is characterized by a particular audience distance in some states which must be removed in order to locate the correct collection under delegates. It's important to look at the national data, which is only indicative of the fact that Trump is ahead of Biden in all national polls, which is just how old it is. Democrats have always had more voters nationally than 20 years ago, which is unlikely to win them together.
But, one notes as following the great mass in these key states, Donald Trump braves the race in point and at times still arched in slightly wide gaps which one sees painfully and they could achieve reduced. Sic, Florida and Ohio are also no longer designated in key states, while Michigan and Wisconsin, usually Democratic, are. Why point out this lack of intelligence immediately democrats to remember against local stile?
If no one looks at the previous ballots, it comes up with the choice of November 2016 which must be invented from the keys to faculty, and not with that between 2020, marked with the endemic of Covid 19. Hillary Clinton, candidate invested in the Jacobin slum and not the media saw, for whatever reasons previously mentioned, proudly following the Alcohol Institute in this way suffered some disappointment weighted with maturity from key states, still also from traditional Democratic bastions, Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump won with the general astonishment. Admiration? Before date like that to bravery. In the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton was easily ahead of Bernie Sanders, and made the inexcusable falsehood of marching in the House, arguing that if voters in Democratic states voted for Sanders, there was no such thing as a bargain. Trump can kill him. She preferred to join other states, including those won in reserve like California, while Trump had the gift of breaking away from these neglected states of his competitor. It is now appropriate to form a clear-sighted selection that is won around the chapter more like Snow Housing or in immediately large daily newspapers if the Levant tax. And no one sees Joe Biden's laborious substance of merit in chaining bell meetings, as such money would be superb.
A Democratic electorate is more divided than ever
Especially because many Republicans hate Trump but resigned during his third consecutive campaign, the Democratic Party today is very divided and the situation with protests by pro-Palestinian groups on university campuses reflects this. Mobilizing Democrats behind their candidate today is the main challenge for the donkey party. And Joe Biden is not up to the task of representing all of the politically sensitive people in his camp.
The paradox of this election: Joe Biden's record is not bad and he has nothing to be ashamed of. If the last four years have been marked by major difficulties in foreign policy (we must go back to the details because we only see a very worrying sign of recession), then the economy, which remains at the center of voters' concerns, has regained momentum. after the Covid years. Except that many voters don't see it that way. Social gaps are widening and rural America and non-industrialized countries continue to suffer from policies that have neglected them for decades. The Biden administration's policy does not meet the expectations of these American "yellow shirts", many of whom support the Republican candidate, and others who turn their backs on a Democratic Party lacking in social policy. Let's be clear, being satisfied with gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures is very simplistic, in the United States as elsewhere, because the main players who will vote on November 11 have not seen any significant improvement in their situation.
The question must be asked frankly: Whose candidate is Joe Biden? And even more, what America does he embody and which Democrats support him? This is becoming less and less obvious.
A third Democratic competitor, purely
A third Democratic competitor, just who?
Since January, there have been reports of a third request from Joe Biden to raise the bar in Democratic ranks. The one who easily, and without campaigning, won the primaries of his oflag could therefore belong disowned and a third competitor would be rational at the flea market of the August modality? But which one, and unfortunately the one which is content to dumb down the kinetics and achieve a three-point precision appointed later? Without foreshadowing the struggles for authority reach mounds from the disastrous position of Joe Biden during the debate, but he will settle on an agreement on a credible request, in addition to concluding to cajole the interested party. Clearly, if the slogan started in August that Biden is not a competitor, this means that he is no longer the administrative administrator to rob the country, and the consequences will be serious. The Republicans will therefore be sure to undermine the president's hypocrisy of the nation's mentality.
The strategy of changing the Democratic candidate: a risky but necessary option?
As the 2024 US presidential elections loom, Democrats find themselves facing a complex dilemma. On the one hand, the possibility of Joe Biden resigning before November, for health reasons for example, could propel Kamala Harris to the Presidency, making her the first female president of the United States. However, this option raises questions about the current vice-president's ability to establish herself as a natural candidate, given her current popularity and the difficulties encountered in her role over the past four years.
On the other hand, Joe Biden's continued existence as a candidate appears to be in jeopardy, with Donald Trump's scandal-based campaign strategy not appearing to bear fruit. It is indeed surprising that Democratic strategists persist in this approach, which seems to benefit their opponent more than themselves.
In this context, it appears necessary for the Democrats to thoroughly review their electoral strategy. The change of candidate, although risky, could prove to be an option to consider, offering slim chances of victory but at the cost of potential destabilization of the electorate.
Beyond this difficult choice, it is above all a change of register that is necessary. It is imperative for Democrats to break away from the strategy of scandals and propose a renewed vision, focused on concrete issues that bring hope for America. Time is running out, and the prospect of a new series of humiliations for the current tenant of the White House, as well as a predicted defeat, looms inexorably.