💸 What Does Trump (and the United States) Lose?
The war is costing the United States dearly on multiple levels:
Human Losses: The war has not been without American casualties. So far, at least 6 American soldiers have been reported killed in drone attacks, with warnings that "things will get worse before they get better."
Massive Economic Losses: Estimates from budget experts at the University of Pennsylvania suggest the total cost of the war to the United States could reach $2.1 trillion. This figure includes:
Direct Military Costs: Between $400 billion and $950 billion for military operations, equipment, and ammunition replenishment. The massive military build-up in the Gulf alone costs approximately $13 million per day.
Indirect Economic Losses: An additional $1.15 trillion resulting from disrupted trade, instability in energy markets, and the deterioration of global financial conditions.
Domestic Political Price: The war is unpopular at home. Polls show that only a quarter of Americans support the strikes on Iran. This stance could become a significant political burden for Trump, especially with the midterm elections approaching, where he will face sharp criticism over the war's staggering costs and the growing budget deficit.
🌍 What Does the World (Asia and Europe) Lose?
The world, especially Asia and Europe, is paying a heavy price due to its reliance on the region's stability:
Major Energy Shock: The war threatens to disrupt energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG exports and about 20 million barrels of oil pass daily. Navigation in the strait has effectively halted, paralyzing Qatari gas tankers bound for Asia and Europe.
Europe's Ailing Economy: The European Union, already suffering from economic stagnation and the threat of tariffs, is most vulnerable to this shock. Rising energy prices could reignite the cost-of-living crisis and put the European Central Bank in a dilemma between high inflation and falling growth.
Growing Asian Anxiety: Asia relies heavily on Middle Eastern oil, with Japan and the Philippines importing about 90% of their needs from the region. Rising oil prices will worsen trade balances and increase inflation, pressuring governments and central banks to raise interest rates. Airlines worldwide, including Australian ones, have suspended or canceled flights, causing travel chaos for thousands of passengers.
Allied Division: European countries like Britain, which found itself dragged into the conflict despite trying to hold back, will find themselves in a difficult position. Competition for alternative energy supplies could also create tensions among NATO allies themselves.
🏆 What Does Netanyahu Gain from This War?
In contrast, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands to reap a number of significant gains:
Neutralizing the Existential Threat: The stated and primary goal is to eliminate the existential threat posed by Iran. Successfully delivering a knockout blow to Iran's nuclear program and militarily weakening the regime represents the realization of a decades-old dream for Netanyahu.
Frustrating US-Iranian Rapprochement: Nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement, which Israel strongly opposed. By launching the strike, Netanyahu succeeded in derailing any normalization or agreement that would have lifted sanctions on Iran and economically reintegrated it, which would have posed a major challenge to Israeli influence in the region.
Reshaping the Middle East: The success of the war could lead to the collapse of the regime in Iran or its severe weakening, effectively eliminating the main backer of Israel's adversaries (Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis). This would cement Israel's status as the undisputed regional superpower.
Domestic Political Gains: Netanyahu has been grappling with internal crises since the events of October 2023. Launching a successful war and toppling the Iranian regime would be a "feather in his cap," restoring his prestige, diverting attention from past failures, and cementing his political legacy as a security champion par excellence ahead of the October 2026 elections.
Strengthening the Relationship with America: By dragging the US into the war, Netanyahu ensured that his strongest ally becomes a full partner in the battle, rather than a mediator or guarantor of an agreement unpalatable to Israel.
In conclusion, the war on Iran presents a major paradox: while the United States bears the brunt of the human and material costs, and the world (Asia and Europe) drinks the cup of recession and inflation due to the energy disruption, Israel, led by Netanyahu, moves to achieve major strategic gains that reshape the region in its favor and bolster its security and regional prestige.